EPOCH-210BITCOIN FOUR-YEAR CYCLE CLOCK
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RUN-UPDRAWDOWNREBUILD SHADED SECTORS · WHERE PAST PEAKS AND BOTTOMS LANDED

About EPOCH-210, the Bitcoin four-year cycle clock

Bitcoin's new supply is cut in half every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years. Each halving so far has been followed by a run to a new all-time high, a deep drawdown, and a rebuild into the next halving. This console puts all four cycles on one clock face so you can see where today sits against that history, and how well the pattern has actually held.

What it shows

  • Where we are: days since the April 2024 halving, today's price against the halving-day close, and the current phase.
  • Cycle high and low: this cycle's all-time high, how far below it the price is, and the lowest low since that high.
  • Every cycle since 2012: peak and bottom dates and prices, how many days each took, and the size of each drawdown.
  • The next halving: blocks left until block 1,050,000 and an estimated date from the current average block time.

How to read the dial

  • One full turn is about four years. Every halving starts at the top, at 12 o'clock.
  • Each ring is one cycle, innermost the oldest. Lime is the run-up from halving to peak, orange the drawdown from peak to bottom, violet the rebuild into the next halving.
  • The shaded sectors show the range of days after the halving where past peaks and bottoms landed.
  • The bright hand is today. The chart below the dial lines every cycle up at its halving, showing price as a multiple of the halving-day close on a log scale.

How the markers are set

All prices are Bitstamp BTC/USD daily candles in UTC, the longest-running US-dollar exchange with continuous data back to 2011. A cycle's peak is the highest daily high between one halving and the next. It's confirmed once the price later trades at least 50% below it.

A cycle's bottom is the lowest daily low after its peak. It stays provisional until 180 days pass without a lower low.

The markers are stored in a version-controlled data file. A weekly check applies these rules to fresh prices and proposes any update for review.

How much to trust the pattern

The last three peaks came 526 to 548 days after their halvings, and their bottoms 363 to 410 days after the peak. That's a striking regularity, but it rests on four cycles, and each cycle's gain from halving to peak has shrunk from about 95× to under 2×.

The current cycle already broke the pattern: its low so far came 268 days after the peak and only about 54% below it, versus 77–87% before. Treat the windows as history, not a forecast.

More live consoles are on the Consoles page, including MERKLE-21 for live network data.

Data: Bitstamp daily OHLC and mempool.space for live price and block height. Cycle durations cross-checked against BitcoinBearMarkets.com. Educational display only. Not financial advice. Financial disclaimer · Trust Center